Thursday, 18 July 2019

Alberta isn't immune to global warming

Living in Alberta one often gets the impression that when it comes to energy and the environment, promoting the oil industry is top priority while dealing with global warming is an afterthought. The premier has said he accepts that anthropogenic climate change is real, but he never shows much interest in doing anything really serious about it. Like a great many Albertans, he stresses the harm to Albertans of a slumping oil industry—and these are certainly substantial—but never mentions the harm being done by global warming, leaving the impression only the former is worth taking seriously. The fact, of course, is that Albertans are already being adversely affected by climate change and it's only going to get steadily worse.

For example, In 2016, we experienced the Fort McMurray wildfire, with an estimated damage cost of $9.9-billion, the costliest disaster in Canadian history. Eighty thousand people were driven from their homes, thousands of homes and businesses were destroyed, and tar sands operations were shut down. According to University of Alberta wildfire expert Mike Flannigan, "We are seeing climate change in action." According to Professor Flannigan, the Fort McMurray fire was 1 1/2 to six times more likely because of climate change. In other words, much of the suffering, damage and cost can be attributed to global warming.

This year, northern Alberta has been battling wildfires that have already burned four times the 5-year average acreage. A major reason is that much of the north has suffered severe or extreme drought. According to Environment Canada, 2019 has been the driest spring on record in several parts of the province. Flannigan states there are three reasons for more and bigger fires: longer fire seasons, drier fuels and more lightning, which is increasing by 10 to 12 per cent with every degree of warming. Last year Calgary had its smokiest summer ever, largely from B.C. fires, with all the attendant health costs.

Flannigan emphasizes global warming's feedback loops. “The warmer we get, the more fire we have. The more fire we have, the more greenhouse gasses that are released. The more gasses that are released, the warmer we get. A vicious cycle.” The increasingly fierce fires are burning deeper into the soil where most of the boreal forest’s carbon is locked.

Increasing frequency and severity of drought will also adversely affect agriculture which will be further affected by the receding of Alberta's glaciers. Glaciers act as natural reservoirs for snow, ice, and meltwater. As much as 70 per cent of the ice is expected to disappear by the end of the century. Glaciers are a prime supplier of the province's drinking water and play an important role in providing water for irrigation, hydroelectric power and mining.

One of the problems in dealing with global warming is the temptation to pass the buck. Many Albertans, and other Canadians, say that as Canada produces far fewer greenhouse gas emissions than, say, China or the United States, we shouldn't be as concerned. In fact, Canadians are, along with the U.S. and Australia the world's top three polluters per capita among the industrial nations. By far. And among the provinces, Albertans are by far the worst, either in total emissions or per capita. Considering we are also among the world's richest jurisdictions, our irresponsibility is shameful. We ought to be leaders, not reluctant followers.

The costs of the above phenomena are not, of course, included in the price of a barrel of oil or a litre of gas, even though they are real costs, thereby reinforcing the idea that global warming is less of an issue than oil production. We Albertans need to fully open our eyes to both sides of the debate, even if only for our own sake.

We can pass the buck all we want, but we can't escape paying the price.

1 comment:

Toby said...

Bill, while many Albertans may not believe in Global Warming, their insurance suppliers do. Actuaries assess risk and these days fire and flood attract their attention.